Études de cas
J.S. Held fait l'acquisition de GLI Advisors, renforçant ainsi ses services d'assistance aux projets de construction dans l'ouest des États-Unis et à Hawaï.
En savoir plusJ.S. Held was retained by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey to develop a range of potential cost outcomes for the construction of a temporary bus terminal, including its necessary ramps and roadway connections. The Port Authority had received two "bottom-up" cost estimates from independent estimators and sought to better understand the likely cost outcomes, accounting for the economic factors impacting the project's various cost drivers.
This request came with several key considerations. Accounting for economic factors in the model required a deep understanding of the material and labor demands of the project, as well as the forces that may impact the cost of these demands. In addition, the two independent estimates received by the Port Authority were not tabulated in a format conducive to modeling and analysis. There were also several iterations of each estimate, and the estimates varied in their classification of specific work scopes.
J.S. Held addressed the considerations listed above through a research and data transformation process. The two independent estimates were parsed into a uniformly structured dataset, which could be used to perform calculations and comparative analysis to inform model inputs. Using the tabulated data, our team combined and aggregated the data to compare the cost estimates by cost division, construction scope, and cost type.
We also completed a comparative (leveling) analysis of the construction costs included in multiple iterations of the independent estimates. Our experts summarized and compared the estimates by cost division, identified the higher of the two for each division, and developed a composite maximum estimate.
The costs of each estimate were summarized into the following inputs: concrete material and equipment, metal material and equipment, mechanical and electrical material and equipment, material and equipment for the remaining cost divisions, and labor. We engaged an economics firm to provide economic forecasting analyses for several construction commodities related to these inputs.
J.S. Held stochastically tested the two independent estimates, as well as a composite maximum estimate, which the team developed through the summarization and comparison of the two independent estimates. This testing also incorporated identified mandatory changes and other potential value engineering items. The anticipated timing of incurred cost (i.e., when the cost would occur during the project) was factored in as a quarterly percentage for each cost division.
Using the above inputs, we performed 100 simulations across 19 quarters for each of the economic inputs provided by the economics firm, resulting in a total of 9,500 scenarios. The stochastic model was selected to identify the "most impactful" cost drivers and time-sensitive effects that would impact the overall construction cost.
J.S. Held analyzed the 50th and 90th percentile cost scenarios for the two independent estimates and the composite maximum estimate. These cost scenarios were compared with one another, as well as to the original estimates provided by the independent estimators.
J.S. Held’s work was used in the Port Authority’s executive briefings and served a vital role in the Port Authority’s budget planning for the project.
Ken Feinstein
Directeur général principal
Enquêtes internationales
+1 917 277 7868
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Douglas Smith
Direction générale
Enquêtes internationales
+1 718 719 3319
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Erin Fallon
Direction générale
Service de conseil en construction
+1 412 293 3759
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> Forensic Data Analysis
Nous conjuguons nos compétences et notre expertise dans l'analyse des données structurées et non structurées à notre savoir-faire en termes d'enquête pour aider nos clients à mettre au jour et gérer le risque juridique, de réputation, réglementaire et financier. En matière d'enquêtes et de questions portant sur la conformité, nous collectons, transformons et chargeons les données issues des systèmes clients de différentes juridictions internationales dans un seul référentiel afin de réaliser des analyses de données complexes.
> Estimation correspondante à la construction
Nous fournissons des devis de coûts détaillés pour chaque phase de construction ou de remédiation. J.S. Held's team has extensive experience developing cost-of-repair estimates for property damage and defect remediation, as well as cost-to-complete estimates and cost management on construction projects from initiation through close-out.